Preview AFC East + West

AFC East

Bills

The bearded boys in blue will come out hard this year. You can expect lots of improvement from promising youngster Josh Allen who has got a huge arm. ESPN has a preview where they call Bill the dark horse of the division… A quick look at the odds reveals that Bills are actually favorites at + 120 to take the division. We totally agree and would jump all over it if we were you.

Allen will find Stefon Diggs often enough to put a decent yardage on the board each game, but they will continue to run the ball with success.

Bills have lost a couple of good defensive players due to Covid-19 but we still expect them to have a really good defense. They won ten games last year and they are better this year. Still it will be tough to reach ten wins since they will face Titans and Giants away. Home, it won’t be easy to beat Rams, Chiefs, Seahawks and Steelers.

Patriots

How bad will the Patriots be this year. Probably better than most of us are hoping for. The water drinking QB with a preference for deflated balls might not be in Boston this year but last time we checked their coach is still named Bill Belichick.

Cam Newton will be the new QB and it will be interesting to watch him cooperating with BB. They won’t be the same team without Brady and it will probably take a while for the team to find a new identity. Expect James White to get a lot of touches. With limited opportunities for Newton to pass, he will run and get hurt.

Jets

It is funny with Jets. No matter how good they recruit and draft they will always find a way to mess it up. Or to “Jets it” as most football fans say. Will Adam Gase run his offense through Bell? Or will they unleash the power of Sammy Darnold who still plays like a rookie? Hearing Jets reporters talking about Jamison Crowder and his brilliance just makes us laugh. Breshad Perriman to catch a lot of dingers from Darnold? Come on.

Also, their “star” running back is Le’Veon Bell who produced just over 3 yards per carry last season. Extremely overrated as he is we still predict that he will end up with six touchdowns rushing.

According to the Jets fan their O-line is good and their D-line very good. So we don’t like hearing excuses for this team. Will they go over 6.5 wins? That will likely depend on if they lose twice to the Pats or not.

Dolphins

Miami. Fins. Dolphins. They have named Fitzmagic their starter, leaving Tua Tagovailoa on the bench for the time being. Since Fitz is a very binary player (throwing Interceptions or Touchdowns) Tua is likely to prove his worth early on. We give it four games.

The O-line has a new look. Last year the unit was the worst in the league so anything that doesn’t stink totally will be an improvement.

If you like Tua and hence like Dolphins chances to improve this year, then the best idea to capitalize on it is to bet Tua as the Rookie of the Year. Fins are just +700 to win AFC East, and given that they do win Tua is fantastic value at +1000.

AFC West

Chiefs

The reigning champs looks poised to put in another bold bid this year. Mahomes is secured forever and they have a fantastic new weapon in the highly praised rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Hilaire. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will both put up big numbers again.

Kansas City has no competition in the AFC West and will win the division easily. They will go over 11 wins with ease.

Chiefs are most certainly a contender to win it all back to back. As always it will be a matter of health. But since Chiefs are so versatile (compared to for example Ravens) it won’t be a matter of other teams figuring out Chiefs. It is not the system, it is the players.

Broncos

The “put it in your pipe and smoke it” city of Denver will actually allow some fans in the stands this year. We are not sure if the hippies will turn out in droves but we do know that the chill factor always is high in Denver. How else could you be comfortable with naming Drew Lock your starter. Never forget that this team after Peyton Manning named Brock Osweiler their starter. And Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch. No, we are not kidding.

They have a young team indeed. And also a COVID team with both Von Miller and Kareem Jackson catching the virus. Their best tackle opted out.

Broncos will be relying on prayers, not skill, in their defense. Broncos could end up the worst team in football this year.

Chargers

Los Angeles Chargers has been more than decent the last couple of years but now they are moving on from Philip Rivers. Tyrod Taylor is nothing more than a backup, we all know that. Justin Herbert might be the future face of the franchise, but he is not at all certain to make it in the NFL. They say the O-line is improved this year, but who should they protect and serve? No Rivers and no Melvin Gordon. They will run it often so expect Ekeler to put up strong numbers. They are decent overall on both sides of the ball but the lack of a QB makes us think this will be closer to a five win team than a ten win team.

Raiders

Las Vegas Raiders will of course provide a lot of entertainment this year. Coach Gruden will likely be even fuller of himself. Someone should remind the guy that at dusk even dwarfs will cast a long shadow. He is living on old merits, and now it is time for him to prove himself again.

We think that the Defense will be good this year, but great enough to win a championship? No.

Derek Carr will have a new weapon this year. Henry Ruggs III will become his main target and there will be some success here.

Much is already talked about the impact of COVID and no fans in Vegas after the move of the Raiders franchise. We don’t see this as a major negative. But the schedule outside the conference is tough. They start away at Panthers and might win that one. Saints, Pats, Bills and Chiefs comes next and chances are that Raiders are 1-4 going into their early bye week. Bucs, Browns, Falcons, Jets and Colts are non division opponents that should provide three wins. How many games will they win within AFC West? We give them three which will get the total to seven. Guess what the line is in Vegas? Seven of course.

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