Memorial Day is normally a day when we gather with friends and family to remember those who paid the ultimate price protecting our democracy. Or just to have a few cold ones and some BBQ. In times of social distancing we today instead turn our attention to Santa Anita and the ponies. There are a few good races this day, but lets start from the beginning.
An Allowance Optional Claimer for 40 000 dollar on the lawn. The distance is just 5 1/2 furlongs and we have a few interesting runners. 8 Torosay competed at this level before going to Dubai facing a wastly better competition. The drop back to his ordinary class makes him our first choice. Wire to wire is our best guess. 7 Big Runnuer should also up there right from the start and is the main threat. 6 Smiling Angelo is known to show some pace and with Irad Ortiz up he might ending up the favorite which we think is wrong since this horse is better on the dirt. We don’t think that the English form from import 4 Mystic Flight is good enough. He might like the conditions, but how far behind will he be after the first furlong?
Seven first timers over 4 1/2 furlongs. We have to believe that the bullets posted by 7 Lozlovian is good enough to win this but Luis Mendez is firing and saddles 2 Hendavid and 3 Reign of Fire.
This is a good one. We have some stakes horses to think about but let’s start by dismissing 2 Colonial Creed which we believe to be one notch better on turf. 4 Message will be overbet because of Baffert/Drayden but can of course win anyway. 5 Streak of Luck is another one switching back to dirt not making herself any favors. Our best bet is 6 Kaydetre. She comes from the G1 Beholder and could press Message for the lead. If she gets past that one early she will be hard to pass.
In this Maiden Claimer we really like the class-dropper 4 Trouville switching back to the dirt. She has been knocking at the door for a while and should be ready now. This is our banker of the day, let’s pray that we don’t have a good one in the newcomers.
If the early races don’t go so well, there is a very intriguing late Pick 4 today at Santa Anita, Starting in RACE 8. Gerbfather’s Late Pick 4
RACE 8: #9 Fierce for Sul, a Baffert entrant, will see heavy action for good reason. Let’s not overthink things and lock in the win early. #2 Buyer’s Remorse, coming off a long layoff is a good pair against this inexperienced field. #10 River Girl is the daughter of American Pharoah and and I like her at a price to round out a trifecta. PICKS: 9-2-10
RACE 9: #1 Without Parole, a Chad Brown entrant, looks to be poised to go at this distance but will face a tough run from the 2nd Brown entrant in #8 Raging Bull has the experience and travels well, but may prefer a longer run. #11 River Boyne draws a tough post but has the speed and Cedillo up, should get his nose in the mix. PICKS: 1-8-11
RACE 10: #2 Camino De Estrella should be able to break through here at a decent number showing good form recently and with Velez on the saddle. #4 Fire When Ready will likely see the brunt of the action having posted well at 20K. #6 Impression could set the pace here that could help our #2.
RACE 11: #1 Etoile is likely the class here and Brown has proven to bring winners from overseas. #3 Lady Princess should get some revenge at the longer distance for Baltas. #7 Beautiful Lover the 2nd Brown will push for the top here but come up short in a too strong field. PICKS: 1-3-7