Everyone knows that it is the early bird that catches the morning worm. This is especially true for Swedish horse racing which starts racing at 6.30 am east coast time. When it comes to thoroughbred racing the Pick 4 and the Pick 5 pools are very interesting. Bro Park is a fast track with a huge pace bias on the dirt track. The turf is more fair but it is not used very often. In Sweden the racing is very “american” with true pace from the very start.
Today we have a very strong favorite in the third race. 10 Kick On comes from England where he was trained by John Gosden. Now trained by Niels Petersen, the leading trainer in Scandinavia, it is hard to see Kick On lose this lesser stakes race. He has Group and Classic merits from England.
The second race is for three year olds over a mile run on the lawn. This is a prep race for the Swedish 2000 and 1000 Guineas and it is very likely that the winner be shipping in from Norway. Niels Petersen is handling 11 Fibonacci and Wido Neuroth has a good horse in 10 Coucou Bella. Both are still maidens and by no means are they are sure thing here. We will use them on our Pick 4 ticket as they represent huge value.
The first race is very much like the second race but the distance is only seven furlongs. 10 I Rely looks like a banker but in our opinion she is overbet. 1,2,3,4,10 should keep the ticket alive.
All eleven horses can win the fourth race. To make things a little more interesting we won’t use 1 Puyol. Puyol will set the fractions, but will be caught since he is a sprinter, not a miler.
This will give us 5x2x1x10 combinations. The cost is 40 cents per combination which is odd. The cost in Sweden is 20 cents so when you play the Pick 4 with TVG you will actually have 2 systems.
If you click the watch live button on TVG you will get to watch the international broadcast and if you don’t mind the irish or the South African accents you will find both broadcasters hilarious and knowledgeable.
The form can be found here.
And you can always follow the betting distribution for the Pick 4 and Pick 5 at http://atg.se.